UNCTAD Forecasts AI Market to Soar to $4.8 Trillion by 2033
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly emerging as the defining technology of the modern era. According to a new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the global AI market is expected to surge from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033, marking a 25-fold growth within a decade.
By then, AI’s share in the global frontier technology market is projected to leap from 7% to 29%, establishing itself as the sector's most influential force.
AI Growth Risks Widening Global Gaps
Despite the promising growth, there is growing concern that AI’s rise could deepen existing global disparities. The development of AI remains heavily concentrated in advanced economies with greater access to skilled labor and resources.
As of 2022, just 100 companies, predominantly based in the United States and China, accounted for 40% of global AI research and development. Together, these two nations hold 60% of all AI-related patents and are responsible for one-third of AI academic publications globally.
AI’s Impact on Employment Worldwide
AI is already transforming media, design, software development, and customer service industries. Globally, up to 40% of jobs could be affected by AI, with as much as a third of positions in advanced economies vulnerable to automation.
However, these same economies are better equipped to capitalize on AI’s potential, with around 27% of roles likely to benefit from AI-driven productivity improvements and human-AI collaboration.
Developing Nations Urged to Accelerate AI Strategies
In order to remain competitive in an AI-dominated future, developing economies need to reform their industrial policies, with a stronger focus on technological progress, innovation, and knowledge-intensive services.
The report identifies a staggering gap: as of 2023, almost 66% of developed countries had national AI strategies in place, whereas just 30% of developing economies (excluding the least developed) had done so. Even among the least developed economies, the number falls to a mere 12%.
UNCTAD suggests that national strategies be concentrated on three key pillars: infrastructure, access to data, and skill acquisition.
Efforts are concentrated on upgrading infrastructure for universal access to electricity, the internet, and computing facilities while promoting open data policies to support innovation. There is also an effort to enhance AI literacy among all age groups, incorporating STEM and AI education from schools to professional training.
Also read: IBM Acquires Hakkoda for Enhancing AI and Data Consulting Services
The Requirement for International AI Cooperation
AI regulation is still disjointed, with richer countries, especially the G7, spearheading international efforts, while 118 developing countries are not represented. This exclusion is worrying, highlighting the necessity for international cooperation to be inclusive.
Giant technology companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, whose market capitals approach $3 trillion, exert substantial power, engendering imbalances.
